Summary
Voters in Florida & New York decide high-profile races. National Archives letter shows Trump had over 700 pages of classified material. Former Trump cabinet member appears before Jan. 6 Committee. Polls close in New York & Florida. Democrat wins in swing district special election. Ex- Louisville officer pleads guilty to conspiracy in Breonna Taylor case.
Transcript
LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST: Mr. Frost to Florida gets tonight`s "LAST WORD". THE 11TH HOUR with Stephanie Ruhle starts now.
ALICIA MENENDEZ, MSNBC HOST: Tonight, primary night in New York and Florida, Ron DeSantis, and Marco Rubio get their opponents and a rare special election in a swing district could tell us what`s motivating voters. Our best experts and Steve Kornacki are all here.
Then we know that some of the government`s most classified material was recovered from the former president`s beach club. So it says the National Archives and now the question who got to see those documents?
Plus, the shocking admission in the Breonna Taylor case. A former police detective admits she misled the judge that gave police permission to barge into Taylor`s home. The police no knock warrant that ended her life, as THE 11TH HOUR gets underway on this Tuesday night.
Good evening once again, I`m Alicia Menendez in for Stephanie Ruhle. And with just 77 days to go until the midterm elections, this is a big primary night in New York and Florida. The polls closed a few hours ago in both states.
NBC News projects that former governor and Congressman Charlie Crist easily won Florida`s Democratic primary for Governor. He`ll take on Ron DeSantis in November.
In New York, Congressman Jerry Nadler is projected to win the Democratic primary for New York`s new 12 congressional districts. Among the candidates who defeated, his fellow incumbent Carolyn Maloney.
We are also following the latest developments in the Trump classified documents controversy. We`re going to have lots more on that ahead. But first, the results are still coming in. And our own Steve Kornacki is back at the big board where he belongs. Steve, where do things stand right now?
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, I mean, we have been focused like a laser beam here on this special election in New York`s 19th district here, really the final special election test heading into the November midterm election.
You can see right now, the Democrat, Pat Ryan continues to lead the Republican Marc Molinaro, the margin now about five and a half points here. We`ve been getting closer, and we still have votes to come. But we`ve been getting closer and closer to all votes in. This is extremely suspenseful right now, because the dynamics night has been that Ryan jumped out to a big lead because counties released their mail votes in their early votes first, and that`s the type of vote that Democratic candidates typically do their best with. And then after that, the counties began releasing the same day vote, the vote was cast in-person today. That`s where Republicans tend to do their best by far. So we`ve been watching this dynamic of the Ryan number coming down throughout the night.
The Molinaro number going up through the night and the question is, at what point does this stop for both of them? Is it enough for Ryan to finish up just above 50? Can Molinaro get just above 50 and win this? So where we stay -- and we just got -- there you go another update right there. And that brings it inside of five points now, the margin between the two of them, was that from -- I wonder if that was from -- it was not from Ulster County.
What we`ve gotten in the last couple minutes of note is this. We now think we have all the vote from Dutchess County. Dutchess County is the second biggest part of this district. It`s the political base of Marc Molinaro. He is the county executive in Dutchess County. And this is interesting because this -- the Dutchess County portion of this district actually went for Biden in 2020. The Molinero having sort of the home county advantage here improved, you can see by basically five points over Donald Trump`s performance here in a very big chunk of this district. So this is the biggest single positive thing you can see on the board tonight for Molinaro in Dutchess County, which voted for Trump, he`s going to end up winning it tonight by about three and a half points. So that helps Molinaro.
But now if you go next door, this is almost all in. We`re waiting on, I think six precincts here but this is Ulster County. This is the biggest county in the district. This is at least a quarter of the vote and I can tell you, the turnout here relative to other parts of the district, the turnout in oldster has been enormous today compared to other parts of this district. It`s the most democratic part of the district. Joe Biden got 60% of the vote here. Pat Ryan is the county executive and Ulster right now he`s getting 62.8. As I said, there are six precincts left to report here. If that same day votes, I expect that 62.8 to come down. But I think it`s plausible that Ryan could end up getting 62% of the vote out of Ulster County improving by a couple of points on how Joe Biden did in the largest county in this district with potentially the county making up a bigger share of the overall vote of this district because the turnout is so high here.
[23:05:20]
So Molinaro is getting good news out of his base in Dutchess County. Ryan is potentially getting some good news out of his base in Ulster County. And the backdrop for this is that Biden won the district that was just showing you the county. Biden won the district by two points. Where else are there outstanding votes in this district? There are some but not many, potentially here in Columbia County, Columbia County, one of the other counties that voted for Biden, there`s Ryan currently still a couple points above the Biden number there. And I think the most outstanding vote though, is right here, Rensselaer County. Now take a look here, Donald Trump in 2016 won Rensselaer by 16 that was cut to 10 in 2020. You`re looking at the early and absentee vote in Rensselaer County. That`s all we have right now.
The question is when we start getting when we get the same day vote out of Rensselaer County, how close is Molinaro able to get to that Trump level, can he get to the Trump level? Can you exceed it? Or can Ryan improve on Joe Biden`s performance here that might end up being the decisive question in this district, but again, where we look overall right now, just checking in again, that`s a 4.8 point margin 5400 votes, the lead for Ryan over Molinaro. A little bit more to come there, out of oldster and I think that Rensselaer same day could end up being what decides this election extremely, extremely close.
MENENDEZ: Extremely close. And we`re going to count on you Steve to bring it all to us. Thank you so much. I will watch you pacing in the hallways for when we have updates.
All right. Let`s get into our other big story of the night still more revelations about those White House Records Donald Trump took to his Florida home. The National Archives today released a letter sent to Trump`s lawyers back in May, confirms the former President brought more than 700 pages of classified documents to Mar-a-Lago when he left office in January 2021. And some of those had to do with the nation`s most sensitive intelligence operations. The letter was first made public by conservative columnist John Solomon, who published it on his website late last night.
Solomon, a Trump ally seemed to want to imply without evidence that Joe Biden was somehow involved in efforts to retrieve the documents. It was trying to tarnish Trump again, without evidence. The Archives letter spells out the alarm within the government about the missing documents, as well as the lengthy struggle to get them back. Well, the Archives Retrieved 15 boxes back in January. Justice Department and FBI investigators apparently did not see their contents until May after extended negotiations with Trump`s representatives. Trump is now suing the Justice Department over the FBI search that netted even more classified records just two weeks ago. He`s asked for a special master to sort through what was seized. But today a judge said she`ll need more details and he`s asked him to refile that suit by Friday. A judge is a Trump appointee.
Today investigators in another controversy involving the former President heard from one of his former Cabinet members. January 6 House Select Committee has just interviewed Trump`s one time national security adviser Robert O`Brien. The New York Times reports the panel interviewed him for several hours and is according to two people familiar with the committee`s work.
Let`s welcome Philip Rucker, Pulitzer Prize Winning Deputy National Editor at the Washington Post, Professor Melissa Murray of NYU Law School, she was a law clerk for Sonia Sotomayor on the federal bench before Sotomayor`s nomination to the Supreme Court. And Jill Wine-Banks, she is a former assistant Watergate Special Prosecutor and former general counsel of the army.
It is good to see you all. Jill here is what a former Director of National Intelligence said tonight about the revelations in the National Archives letter.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The classification ascriptions that have been assigned to them, as is very concerning, what could an adversary glean from them, particularly about sources, methods and tradecraft. And this is a very -- could be potentially very serious, particularly if it puts human intelligence assets lives at risk. If these documents are not under proper authorized -- officially sanctioned control, which they weren`t at Mar-a- Lago, then you have to assume the worst.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MENENDEZ: Jill, let`s talk about the stakes here. Trump left office 19 months ago, much of this trove of highly classified documents had been squirreled away at Mar-a-Lago since then. Did Trump put the nation`s security at risk?
[23:10:12]
JILL WINE-BANKS, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: (Technical difficulties), information designation, unless they will pose a great danger to our national security, if disclosed, they were left in a place that was not secure. They are the kind of documents some of them at least, that you should not read outside of a skiff, somewhere that is completely secure. Even the president shouldn`t have it while he`s the president. They have to be kept secret so that lives are not put at risk.
And we know he`s very casual with intelligence, he disclosed intelligence to the Russian ambassador in the Oval Office. And so this is very, very dangerous. And everything that we`re learning now gets worse and worse for him. The things he`s disclosing do not help them from a legal perspective. It is getting very frightening that he could possibly find lawyers who will file these papers that say things that cannot be true. He had lawyers filing saying there was nothing left there. And the 700 pages you`re referring to were the first set of documents taken from him in January, 25 additional boxes have been taken more recently, which included 11 sets of classified information. So we are in very serious problem. And we know from his admissions that he knew about it, and he says I was going to cooperate. You didn`t have to use a search warrant, when in fact, the letter that`s revealed shows that despite great efforts and deference paid to him, he did not return documents that the government knew he had.
MENENDEZ: I mean to that point, Phil, you have new reporting tonight on how the FBI began to really zero in on classified documents at Mar-a-Lago after months of delay. Your paper reports Trump, "ignored multiple opportunities to quietly resolve the FBI concerns by handing over all classified material in his possession." And Phil, are the Feds typically, this patient, just how unusual is all of this?
PHILIP RUCKER, THE WASHINGTON POST DEPUTY NATIONAL EDITOR: It`s highly unusual. My colleagues at the Washington Post tonight have this new reporting about the timeline that goes back to early April of this year, when Trump was first notified by the National Archives that the FBI would be asked to review the documents that they had obtained from Mar-a-Lago earlier in the year, to review them for classified materials. And really, this was the beginning of what has become a very serious federal law enforcement investigation.
And our reporting, as well as the court filings and other documentation that has surfaced this week, paints a picture of repeated, week`s long negotiations between the National Archives, the FBI and the Trump legal team, with Trump trying to prevent the FBI from reviewing those documents. Ultimately, he failed in that attempt, of course, and it was the national archivist acting at the direction of the sitting president who deferred this decision to the archives, who effectively said, you know, time is up, you`ve had the opportunity to review these and to contest this, and the FBI is going to get these documents. And in fact, the FBI did look at the documents and what they found, was so sensitive and so alarming, and they realized more documents were missing. And that`s what set off the decision to ultimately search Mar-a-Lago two weeks ago.
MENENDEZ: I mean, Melissa, as Phil and Jill just laid out, the stakes are high. And then at the same time, you have a judge in Florida asking Trump`s lawyers to resubmit his request for a special master for the search saying his lawyers basically botched the paperwork. I mean, is his legal team under estimating just how serious this really is?
MELISSA MURRAY, NYU LAW PROFESSOR: It`s hard to say, if they`ve underestimated this or this is truly the extent of their professional acumen, Alicia, but it`s clear that Judge Cannon asking them to resubmit their filings and to provide more particulars about the kind of relief that they are seeking, the evidence that they have -- that they are entitled to such relief and in any theory of a case suggests how impoverished this filing was.
Barbara McQuade last night basically equated it to a press release. And I think that`s exactly right. It is a more than 20 page rant without any of the common features that one might expect of a legal complaint filed by individuals who have been trained by -- as lawyers and barred and licensed by a jurisdiction in this country. It really fails on a number of levels.
MENENDEZ: I mean, Phil, to the point about this being about P.R., about a rant as we mentioned, this National Archives letter was first posted overnight by a conservative columnist, a Trump supporter, it looked like an attempt to try to imply the President Biden was going after Trump again without any evidence, why would team Trump, why would trump world want this document released? Phil?
[23:15:23]
RUCKER: Yes, you know, the Trump team seemed to have wanted this document released because they thought it might paint the picture of the FBI, the federal government and really the Biden White House going after Trump and unfairly targeting him. And yet, what they must have miscalculated is that this actually reveals a whole heap of trouble for the former president. It shows all of the opportunities that the former president and his legal team had to try to work with the FBI and to do the right thing in reviewing and getting these documents reviewed. And it also shows, frankly, the scale the scope of what we`re talking about, that first batch, more than 100 classified documents totaling more than 700 pages, that`s an extraordinary batch of documents. And it`s just the first of what would become three large batches of documents that had been recovered that Trump was improperly holding at Mar-a-Lago.
MENENDEZ: Jill, improperly holding, and the New York Times reported Trump was believed to have gone through the documents personally before handing them over. Today, an op-ed in The Washington Post says, "If the facts are as damning as they appear, Trump`s risk of indictment is quite high." Jill, do you agree?
WINE-BANKS: I agree. I actually think, Alicia, that it`s almost essential that he cannot be allowed to get away with the blatant disregard of the law and the danger to the country. The evidence of his personal involvement is growing. We just when you think it can`t get any worse. He was involved. He knowingly withheld it. The number of violations there are only three listed in the search warrant. But I would say that there`s theft of government property that`s now been added to it. There are many other laws that I think he could be charged with violating. And I think that any reasonable jury will easily find the under reasonable doubt that he violated those laws knowingly and deliberately and without any reason for doing so. The new argument about a special master is just another delay tactic. It`s a way to prevent anyone doing the risk assessment that must be done to determine how much damage was done by the documents, not in a safe place.
So there`s a lot that needs to be done to protect the country. And the accusations against the White House are as you said tonight, they are completely without any evidentiary basis. There`s no fact that supports that. And everything in the letter that his -- that Solomon released is to the contrary, it shows that he was not cooperating, that he had every opportunity to avoid a search and deliberately provoked it.
MENENDEZ: Melissa, one of the things we`re watching for this week. The DOJ`s first crack and a redacted affidavit is due this Thursday. Could these new revelations from the National Archives have any impact on that?
MURRAY: I think it`s likely that, I mean, all of this is joined up in an interesting way. And even the request to Judge Cannon to appoint a special master to review this will, I think, be considered in light of what Judge Reinhart is considering in terms of redacting particular information from that affidavit. But I think what we are likely to see and I think Judge Reinhart has made this already clear in some of his own words from the bench is that there`s really sensitive information here information about individuals in the field, intelligence operatives that might be made more public, the FBI agents who`s names and identities would be made public and I think all of this together and all of the information that already has been unsecured, may well counsel in favor of more redactions rather than less.
MENENDEZ: Melissa Murray, Philip Rucker, Jill Wine-Banks, thank you all so much for getting us started.
Coming up, we now know who will run against Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio. We are live in both Florida and New York.
And later, the unexpected twist in the death of Breonna Taylor, a detective admits to lying about the warrant that led to the fatal police raid at Taylor`s apartment. THE 11TH HOUR just getting underway on a Tuesday night.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:24:13]
MENENDEZ: We are continuing to follow primary results in a handful of states tonight and some races that could give us insights into what is motivating voters. Let`s welcome Marc Caputo, Senior National Political Reporter for NBC News Digital and Sahil Kapur, NBC National Political Reporter.
Marc, Charlie Crist is going to take on Ron DeSantis in that governor`s race, you know this state better than anyone, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020. Last four elections, Democrats were projected to win statewide. Those races when two Republicans this race as you have been reporting on observers see it going to DeSantis what are the dynamics in the state that are playing into that analysis?
MARC CAPUTO, NBC NEWS SENIOR NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Yeah, the dynamics are really tough. Not only is the polling favoring Ron DeSantis but so is the money. He`s got a staggering 114 million dollars cash on hand that`s cash in the bank no governor has done that ever, that we`ve seen.
[23:25:06]
In addition to that, for the first time ever this year, the number of registered Republicans in Florida, eclipsed the number of registered Democrats, when Obama won the state in 2008, he had the advantage of something about 640,000 Democratic voters over registered Republicans that`s gone. Republicans are now ahead and then you just have the dynamics of it being a midterm. It`s Biden`s midterm. Biden`s poll numbers are bad. And that`s also kind of an additional weight, not just on Charlie Crist or any Democrat running statewide here. But nationwide, just as Donald Trump`s bad poll numbers during his midterm, were a bit of a millstone around the necks of other Republicans. However, in 2018, it should be clear that Ron DeSantis just barely squeaked by, it does look like DeSantis is in a far stronger position now, in 2022 that he was in 2018.
MENENDEZ: There are analysts, of course, Sahil, who would argue that you can actually decouple some of what you`re seeing from the president`s approval, disapproval numbers. I want to look at New York 19. Tell us about that race. What it can potentially tell us.
SAHIL KAPUR, NBC NEWS NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Yeah, it`s a special election in a sea of primaries that we`re seeing in New York and Florida. It`s a Democrat versus Republican race. And it`s such a tight contest right now. The Democrat Pat Ryan, I`m looking at the numbers up by about --
MENENDEZ: I got to say, it`s why you got permission to bring your laptop onset.
KAPUR: That`s right. If I appreciate, Pat Ryan is up by about three points. But NBC News has not called this, I don`t want to get ahead of it. It is a very tight race. And this district just up on the metro north in the Hudson Valley. It`s a bellwether district, it went for Joe Biden narrowly and 2020, it went for Donald Trump and 2016 went for Barack Obama in 2012. It was a Republican health district in the house until the 2018 blue way when Democrats flipped it. This is the kind of district that tells us about the national mood.
And now this race one -- whichever way it goes, it`s going to be a close race, which tells us that we are not looking at a red wave environment based on this race. Now, coming into this, I will say that both party strategists from both parties downplayed their odds because there are some unique dynamics here. Democrats were leery of late spending by Republicans, one outside group came in with a pretty big ad by Republicans were downplaying their own chances because they note that it coincides with a Democratic primary in the blue state of New York and they say Democrats turnout in bigger numbers. So there are those caveats. But regardless, this is a real test of the Democrats use of the messaging on Roe versus Wade, the Supreme Court`s decision on abortion which Pat Ryan had been aggressively emphasizing to try to galvanize voters. This was a test of that, compared with the Republican message to use economic pain, inflation and make the election a referendum on Biden. We`ll see which one wins out.
MENENDEZ: Marc, we talked about the gubernatorial race in your state. Let`s talk about the Senate race. Val Demings is going to face off against Marco Rubio for that Florida Senate seat, you back to 2018. Scott, DeSantis, they won, but by fairly narrow margins, something has fundamentally shifted in the state of Maine. Is there a path here for Demings?
CAPUTO: In the story I wrote about Charlie Crist fortunes in the eyes of Democrats, she is the bright spot for them, she is the glimmer of hope that they have. Now, there`s been some polling and scant polling, some of it, most of it indicates that Rubio was ahead. But there have been a few surveys or at least one recently that had Demings kind of marginally leading. So that`s going to be a race that we should watch much more closely in terms of kind of forecasting how it`s going to go. There is again, more of a sense of optimism from Democrats. There`s also a belief out there that national Democrats are going to come in with some money for her, but you know, statewide in the governor`s race, there`s a lot greater doubt.
MENENDEZ: Sahil, New York 10, New York 12, but what are going to be the lessons there?
KAPUR: It looks like most Democrats, Alicia, have survived the redistricting bloodbath. Democratic incumbents, I should say, um, but there are some prominent exceptions in New York 12, which is where we are right now Midtown as well as the upper east and west side. Carolyn Maloney lost her primary to Jerry Nadler, these two have served together side by side for 30 years, they were pitted in the same district, one of them had to lose. Carolyn Maloney, the Chair of the Oversight Committee is out. Nadler, the Chair of the Judiciary Committee is still in.
Just south of here in lower Manhattan in New York 10, Mondaire Jones, the incumbent Congressman appears to be in some trouble. He is in third place right now. NBC has not called the race, but he is trailing two other candidates with 98% of the vote. And there is a real chance he might end up --
MENENDEZ: Because this wasn`t his original district?
KAPUR: This was not. He was shuffled into this as part of the redistricting. You know, the new map that was created just a few months ago and there was real tension between him and another Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, the Chair of the Campaign Committee who decided to run in a district that kind of overlaps with his right now that left him running here in a crowded field with candidates that doesn`t look particularly good for him right now.
MENENDEZ: Sahil Kapur, what a treat to have you with me in the studio, Marc Caputo, as always, thank you so much for being with us.
Coming up, abortion, the economy and protecting democracy. There is a race in New York where a Democrat is facing a Republican in a swing district that race as Sahil was just telling us could tell us so much about what is ahead this fall. Two of this network`s favorite political experts our next when THE 11TH HOUR continues.
[23:30:15]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
23:35:00
MENENDEZ: We are continuing to track election results. Let`s get back to Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve.
KORNACKI: Wow this has been a close one and we just got a major development in the special election in New York`s 19th Congressional District. Again, Pat Ryan, the Democrat, we`ve seen him leading all night. We`ve seen the margin shrinking all night. We`ve been asking when this thing ends, will Ryan still be north of 50%. A big piece of the puzzle was at Otsego County and it we just got we had a huge amount of outstanding vote here. Now, we have all of the voting from Otsego County. And you can see that the Republican Marc Molinaro ends up winning here 51 and a half to 48.3. Essentially a three point margin for Molinaro.
That is significant because for Ryan, that represents an improvement over how Joe Biden did in this county in 2020. Trump won this county by five points in 2020. Molinaro is going to win it by only about three points tonight. So Ryan actually improves on Biden`s showing in Otsego County. That`s huge, because again, remember district wide, Joe Biden carried this district by two points in 2020. So what that leaves us with is almost all the votes are in right now.
And you can see that the margin, the lead for Pat Ryan district wide 3,285 votes, that translates into a little bit more than a two and a half percent lead district wide. Where are there still votes to come? There are seven precincts that we know of in Ulster County. The most democratic part of this district, Ryan`s based, there are seven precincts that have yet to report here. We know that, we`re looking to see if there`s any other outstanding votes anywhere in this district. But that is with what`s -- what appears to be left in his district. That is an incredibly steep hill to climb for Molinaro to make up basically 3,300 votes with what we know to be left in this district right now.
Pat Ryan, the Democrat is in -- there it is, NBC News has just called it, Pat Ryan, the Democrat has been elected to Congress in a special election from New York`s 19 congressional district. He defeats Republican Marc Molinaro. This is a significant victory, not just for Pat Ryan in this district. This is a significant victory for Democrats nationally because it gets to the heart of the question that we`ve been asking politically for the last two months. That is whether the political climate in this country has changed. Specifically in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe versus Wade.
There had been before tonight, two special elections, one in Minnesota, and one in Nebraska, in very Republican districts where Democrats had done better than Joe Biden had done in 2020. The Democrats hadn`t won either of those districts. But they had done better than Biden in 2020. That created talk that perhaps there was new energy on the Democratic side that they had overperformed in these Republican districts.
Tonight, though, we got to test in a different kind of district, a truly competitive political district here. Donald Trump carried New York`s 19th district and 2016. Joe Biden carried it, he flipped it by two points in 2020. This district kind of mirroring the country. If you went further back, Obama carried this district back in 2012.
In a midterm climate that the Republicans have been saying all year that we live in, in a strong Republican midterm climate, this special election would have been a layup for the Republicans and would have been a layup for Molinaro. Instead, the Democrats haven`t just made it close, they are going to outright win this election. It is possible in fact that Ryan is going to win this district by a larger margin than Joe Biden carried it in 2020.
And so I think this is the clearest, this is the strongest piece of evidence yet. And there have been other pieces of evidence in the last few weeks to suggest that the national political climate has shifted away from a Republican advantage toward a more neutral climate, a neutral climate that gives Democrats a chance certainly in holding on to the Senate, potentially, to holding on to the House of Representatives. When you get a result like this, this is not the result you would get. You would expect to see in a strongly Republican political climate.
We`ve seen the generic ballot. Those poll questions about which party would you like to see control Congress? We have seen that tightened significantly over the last two months. It is now essentially tied. The Republicans had been leading it all year. We saw Democrats, as I said in Nebraska and Minnesota outperformed Joe Biden in special elections. And now in a truly bellwether district, a district that both parties in both candidates went after hard. You have seen the Democrats win. They have won it outright and as I said, potentially by an even larger margin than Joe Biden did in 2020. Politically for Democrats, you could not get more encouraging signs in a midterm climate that looked terrible for them a few months ago, that still is fraught with political landmines.
[23:40:13]
Joe Biden`s popularity is not good. The economy`s not in a great place and the mood of the country is not strong. And yet in the face of all of that, you get this result tonight, on top of everything else they are talking about that has been happening in the last few months.
This is a very, very significant political development. Again, Pat Ryan, the Democrat defeat Marc Molinaro, the Republican in the special election in New York`s 19th District. And I think this is the last major tea leaf we get. Last special election like this before November`s election. And I think all those questions about the political climate and the possibility that maybe this midterm is a little bit different than the typical midterm, boy, those are going to be underscored. Those are all going to be talked about and raised to a new volume after this result tonight.
MENENDEZ: Steve Kornacki, always bringing us context and the stakes. Now, let`s bring an MSNBC Political Contributor Matthew Dowd, he`s also a former George W. Bush strategist and Founder of Country over Party. And Victoria DeFrancesco. Soto, the Dean of the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas and MSNBC Political Analyst.
Friends, it is good to see you both. Matt, I had Sahil Kapur onset with me just a few moments ago saying, even if this race is close, even if it tips for the Republican in New York 19, it still could tell you something about where our national political climate is headed. What it tells you, he argued, was that there is no big red wave coming. What do you make of this race?
MATTHEW DOWD, MSNBC POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I completely agree with that. And I actually think we`re not only no longer have a big red wave, I think the results over the -- all the pieces of data we`ve seen for the last 60 days shows the environment is fundamentally shifted. I tried -- you and I`ve had this conversation for weeks at a time that the President`s job approval numbers are completely disconnected for where people are voting on the ballot in this race, not only does 19 which the Democrats picked up, that is a plus 4% Republican district. When they rate the district, that`s a plus 4% Republican district.
The other district results in New York tonight are 23, which is a plus 10 or 11 Republican district that the Democrats lost, but they only lost it by four or five points. That means tonight showed right now, there`s a four or five point advantage the Democrats have shown coming out of New York in this election. So there is no red wave, there may be no blue wave. But we may have true cross currents going on, where everybody is going to be tossed and turned in the two cross currents that every race could fundamentally like the U.S. Senate looks like is being decided on their own. And as Republicans nominate people completely out of the mainstream, it gives Democrats chance after chance after chance to buck the trend of a normal midterm.
MENENDEZ: Victoria, I do not need to tell you that there are political operatives in rooms right now watching these results come in, trying to figure out what they need for them, for their strategy going into November. If you were Democrats, and you were watching these numbers, if you were Republicans, and you`re watching these numbers, how does it affect and change the plan moving forward?
VICTORIA DEFRANCESCO SOTO, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Well, first of all, I`m going to completely copy and adopt the crosscurrent language because I love this, as Matthew characterized it because we seem to be at a standstill, right, where even though you would expect the Republicans to just run away with the midterm elections, because traditionally, the party that is out of the White House, we`ll get a bump up, but because of the political pressures that we have seen, namely, after Roe v Wade being overturned, you see this toner pressure toward that pattern towards this truism and political science.
And in addition to that, what to me is so striking, is it we`re also seeing a push up against the institutional strength of redistricting. We all know that after the 2020 census, that Republicans were favored in terms of redistricting. So not only do we see the truism, midterm elections, not helping the White House Party, but also the redistricting that happened after the census. We thought it would be a bloodbath for Democrats. I think that we`re going to see a temperament here. That is a lot more moderate for Democrats going into the midterm election.
MENENDEZ: OK, so Matt, given all that context, I want to ask you about Ron DeSantis and this ad that he is running in Florida. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOVERNOR RON DESANTIS, (R) FLORIDA: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, this is your governor speaking. Today`s training evolution, dogfighting, taking on the corporate media.
The rules of engagement are as follows. Number one, don`t fire unless fired upon. But when they fire, you fire back with overwhelming force.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MENENDEZ: Matt, it is earning unfavorable comparisons so the ADA Dukakis tank photo-op, is it going to play better in Florida?
[23:45:02]
DOWD: I don`t think it`ll play in Florida. I mean the first thing I thought of and I actually worked on the Bentsen. I worked for Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. And I remember that happening in the course of that, how much of a disaster it was in the -- for the Democratic campaign in that.
I mean, I think what it does is I think DeSantis is trying to be like Trump, but he doesn`t have the stick that really Trump has to do or do things that are outrageous like that. I just think when people look at it, they`re going to roll their eyes and say, come on, oh, come on. Many doesn`t fit the guy. This doesn`t fit the guy in the course of this. I don`t know how much it`ll stick in that race, because I think he has an advantage in that race. But I think it`s an unforced error. There was no way I would have ever recommended doing an ad like that in a race on behalf of Governor DeSantis. But I think it`s a full pot mistake, but I don`t know how much it sticks.
MENENDEZ: Vicki, I`ve only got about a minute left. But there`s a piece of news that we`ve not gotten in yet. And I want you to speak to it. The White House expected to make a big announcement about student loan debt tomorrow. How big of an impact could the President`s decision on student loan debt then have on midterms?
DEFRANCESCO SOTO: It could have a huge impact. We know that in 2018 and 2020, we saw record you turnout. We were worried that we weren`t going to see the same turnout because you were feeling deflated apathetic. This is the type of thing that the Democrats, that President Biden can take to youth and say I am working for you, giving them a tangible reason that turnout, meaningful in so many ways, Alicia.
MENENDEZ: Matthew Dowd, Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, thank you so much for being with us on this big night. There`s going to be more primary coverage live the top of the next hour.
Coming up, next the death of Breonna Taylor captured the attention of people nationwide. And now we have a surprising admission in court. The rationale for the police entry into her home is based on misleading information given to a judge. That`s when THE 11TH HOUR continues.
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[23:51:36]
MENENDEZ: There is a surprising update tonight in the death of Breonna Taylor. The case has had people nationwide calling for justice for Taylor. Today, former Louisville Kentucky detective pleaded guilty in federal court to one count of conspiracy. It`s all about misleading information given to the judge to prove the raid that ended Taylor`s life.
Kelly Goodlett is now the first officer to be convicted in the botched raid that killed Taylor. New York Times reporter, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs has been covering the story in Louisville, and joins us now. Nicholas, you were in the courtroom this afternoon. Explain what happened there?
NICHOLAS BOGEL-BURROUGHS, THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL REPORTER: Hi, yes. Basically the former detective Kelly Goodlett, who had been working with the department until just this month when she was charged, basically admitted to three things all relating to the search warrant for Breonna Taylor`s apartment.
She said that when she looked at the search warrant application, initially which one of her colleagues had written that she knew it was false, she knew that there were -- there was a lie in it, about an ex-boyfriend who had been receiving packages at the home, and she didn`t do anything about it. And then she also added false information herself. She said this ex- boyfriend had been living there when she knew that that wasn`t true. And third, when people started asking questions about it, she lied to investigators about her role in the warrant and basically didn`t come clean until today.
MENENDEZ: Nicholas, does this guilty pleas suggest that the detective is now cooperating with DOJ?
BOGEL-BURROUGHS: That`s basically the assumption. She, you know, has pleaded guilty only a few weeks after being charged. Obviously, you would expect that if the three other officers who are charged by DOJ go to trial that the prosecutors will want to call her as a witness. She knows them and their work probably better than almost anyone else.
MENENDEZ: Nicholas, it`s my understanding that the Taylor family was in the courtroom today. How are they reacting to this latest news?
BOGEL-BURROUGHS: Yep, Breonna Taylor`s mother, Tamika Palmer was there today. And for much of the proceedings, she was sitting stoically, and watching very intently what was happening. As Kelly Goodlett pleaded guilty and the judge accepted her plea. Ms. Palmer did begin to cry and wipe away tears. And it`s obviously hard to imagine even going through that.
MENENDEZ: Nicholas, as someone who has been following all of this closely your sense of where it all goes from here?
BOGEL-BURROUGHS: Well, next is seeing whether this affects the cases of the three other officers who have been charged, do they end up going to trial which could happen as soon as in the next few months? Or do they look at taking their own plea deal?
MENENDEZ: Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, thank you so much.
Coming up special coverage of tonight`s primer results in a swing district where NBC News projects the Democrat has won that it tells us about November, when THE 11TH HOUR continues after this.
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[23:59:26]
MENENDEZ: That does it for THE 11TH HOUR on what has been a very busy news night. I`m going to see you right back here tomorrow. But our special primary night coverage continues right now.
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